Light vehicle sales saw a strong rebound in 2023, reflecting a demand overhang from previous years which were disrupted by the Covid-19 pandemic and supply chain interruptions. We expect that the European and US markets will achieve double-digit growth this year, with global light vehicle sales growing by approximately 8% in 2023. The outlook for the next year is less certain – but after a few years of subdued production, we still currently expect modest growth in 2024.

Following such a notable bounce, we expect that next year’s rate of growth will moderate to 2-3%, with the three largest auto markets – China, the United States and Europe – all growing within that range. We expect a more balanced picture between production and sales in 2024, reflecting greater synchronisation between supply and demand next year.

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