Natural Gas Technical Analysis
Natural gas markets have done very little during the trading session on Thursday as we continue to look for some type of directionality. After all, the markets have sold off quite drastically, and now are looking for some type of reason to have a bear market bounce. That being said, the $2.00 level underneath probably could be reason enough, but the biggest problem is that there is going to be a serious lack of demand.
After all, we are heading into the warmer months in the northern hemisphere, so it does make quite a bit of sense that we would see lower pricing. However, as we had sold off so drastically before, whether or not we can continue to see this type of selloff remains to be seen. After all, we have lost so much strength that at this point you have to ask the question “who is left to continue selling this contract?”
If we do bounce from here, the 50-Day EMA sits right around the $3.07 level, which of course is typically thought of as a resistance barrier. If we can break above there, then it’s possible that we could go to the $4.00 level, but I doubt that happens anytime soon, and of course there is a large, round, psychological importance to that level as well.
If we were to turn around and break down below the $2.00 level, then it’s likely that we could continue to drop significantly, but I would not expect that to be the most likely of scenarios, because quite frankly we are running out of momentum. At this point, I think it’s probably the wisest trade to simply fade rallies as they show signs of exhaustion.
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