- Holiday airfares are expensive due to high demand.
- To get better deals, plan ahead, be flexible with travel dates, and monitor prices.
- Consider traveling during off-peak seasons for lower fares.
Whenever I tell someone new I’m an aviation reporter, one of the first questions they usually ask is for my top travel tips.
I tell them to read my column.
Kidding – I usually ask what kind of tips they’re looking for, and this time of year, it’s often about how to get the best deal on holiday airfares.
But here’s the dirty little secret you probably already know: there aren’t really great deals on flights this time of year. The holiday season is an extremely popular time to fly, and airlines take advantage of that to boost fares and make some money. It’s basic supply and demand.
That said, it’s not all doom and gloom for winter travel. A little flexibility can help you get, if not good, at least better prices. And of course, at other times of year, great flight deals abound.
Why are holiday airfares so expensive?
It’s for exactly the reason you think.
“We don’t typically see major fare sales from airlines around the holidays because the holidays are one of the busiest times of year for travel,” Hayley Berg, lead economist at online booking platform Hopper, told me. “Those flights are, for the most part, booked solid weeks before departure dates.”
Basically, airlines take advantage of everyone wanting to travel and keep their prices high. It’s not some secret plot to pull the wool over your eyes or make you, specifically, pay extra. It’s just run-of-the-mill capitalism, and that’s the boarding group we’re all in.
How can you be sure you’re getting a decent deal on holiday travel?
There are some things you can do to ensure you’re getting a relatively good fare, even if it’s more expensive than what you’d likely pay for the same flight at a different time of year.
Berg’s three top pieces of advice are:
▶◾ Plan ahead: “Holiday airfare feels so much more expensive than other times of the year, but the reality is that when travelers are booking holiday fares, they’re often booking pretty last minute and booking for the most popular departure and return dates,” Berg said. “What we recommend is starting the planning process for the holidays early, expecting to book both Thanksgiving and Christmas trips in October and booking with some flexibility.”
It may be too late to get the best available fares for Christmastime now, but these other steps can help you minimize the financial hit.
▶◾ Stay flexible: Some days of the holiday season are more popular for travel than others, so if you don’t need to pick those peaks, you may find better deals.
“If you look for a trip that returns on the Sunday after Thanksgiving, the prices are going to be exorbitant,” Berg said, because that’s one of the most popular travel days of the year.
“If you look for a last-minute trip that departs on Thanksgiving Day and returns on Monday after Thanksgiving or Tuesday after Thanksgiving,” you may see lower airfares because fewer people fly on those days, according to Berg.
◾ Monitor prices: Another good way to make sure you’re getting a decent deal is to have your computer tell you the stats.
“Prices change so often, even when travelers get a good deal, it may not feel like one,” Berg said. “The best way to know you’re getting a good deal is to use a price monitoring tool, rather than doing the checking yourself once a day or a couple times a day.”
Google Flights, Hopper, Expedia and other platforms all offer versions of price monitoring or predictions.
While these tools are definitely useful, my personal philosophy on airfare is: if it seems like a good deal, book it. I often tell people airline pricing is so dynamic, and the trends can be so unpredictable, that your gut feeling is sometimes as good a reason as any to pull the trigger or hold off on locking in airfare.
Berg added that airfares fluctuate so often that even if you miss the window for booking a great deal one day, it’s very possible prices will return to the same level at some point if you’re not too close to your departure date. Berg also said Travel Tuesday (cousin to Black Friday and Cyber Monday) is a good time to search for discounts on airfares and hotel rooms.
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How do airlines decide when to offer airfare discounts?
Outside of the holiday season, airlines often use sales to help stimulate demand for a variety of reasons.
“When new routes are announced, airlines are going to offer lower prices on the route than what incumbents are offering … It’s to drum up demand or raise awareness that this route is now available,” Berg said. “The other way sales are activated are when demand is slower.”
The so-called shoulder or off-peak travel seasons, like late September through early November, often have great deals available because fewer people are traveling.
Holiday travel tips
For the best deal, it’s a good idea to shop prices and be as flexible as possible with your travel schedule. But it’s also smart to try to get early flights whenever possible. The earlier you fly, the less likely you are to be affected by weather delays. Similarly, if you’re flying on an especially popular day, you should leave yourself a little extra time to get through security at the airport, because lines during peak travel seasons are likely to be long.
And finally: consider familiarizing yourself with new Department of Transportation traveler protections. If something goes wrong with your itinerary, it’s helpful to know what you’re entitled to before you reach out to airline customer service.
Zach Wichter is a travel reporter for USA TODAY based in New York. You can reach him at zwichter@usatoday.com.
