An already damaging and disruptive tropical wind and rainstorm will continue to rage along a large portion of the United States Atlantic Coast with high winds, flooding rain and major coastal flooding.
AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva was live on Oct. 12 to discuss the latest on the tropics and a coastal storm impacting the eastern U.S.
Flooding from both heavy rain and wind-driven storm surge will extend from eastern North Carolina to southern New England into Monday night as a sprawling tropical wind and rainstorm crawls northward before turning out to sea, AccuWeather meteorologists warn.
On Sunday, the tropical wind and rainstorm’s structure is spread out in an arc for nearly 1,000 miles from the Carolina coast to southern New England and then eastward to north of Bermuda over the central Atlantic.
This image of the strengthening tropical wind and rainstorm along the United States Atlantic Coast was captured on Sunday morning, Oct. 12, 2025. (AccuWeather Enhanced RealVue™ Satellite)
Because of this vast expanse, rather than a compact, intense storm, some of the impacts may fall short of the worst-case scenario. However, impacts related to rain, wind, coastal flooding and erosive surf will be significant to severe for many beach communities from the Carolinas to southern New England.
“A top concern we have is from coastal flooding and storm surge, which will be the most extreme at times of high tide through Monday,” AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said. “There will be major flooding at multiple high tide cycles and in many cases, low tide will be well above the routine high tide. The worst conditions in most cases will span Sunday to Monday.”
A State of Emergency is in effect for New Jersey into Monday.
A long zone of onshore winds extending out hundreds of miles into the Atlantic, known as fetch, will push water toward the Atlantic coast. The result will be a widespread storm surge of 2-3 feet, with some areas experiencing a surge of 4-5 feet. The AccuWeather Local StormMax™ storm surge is 6 feet.
For example, at Cape May, New Jersey, the record high tide is 9.36 feet set during a nor’easter on Jan. 23, 2016. Peak tide levels during Sandy in 2012 were 8.67 feet. Peak high tide during this storm is forecast to be 8.4 feet and above that of Erin from August.
For several locations in the mid-Atlantic, this will be a top-five to top-three high tide or storm surge.
The storm surge will flood some neighborhoods and access roads on barrier islands from North Carolina to New Jersey and Long Island, New York. Flooding will also occur on the estuaries and many of the bays and sounds in the region. Salt water is highly corrosive and can permanently damage vehicles that become inundated.
“On top of the surging tides is the wave action or breakers along the coast that can be highly damaging to beaches, dunes and man-made structures,” AccuWeather Senior On-Air Meteorologist Melissa Constanzer said. “The slow-moving nature of the storm will result in damaging conditions for many hours.”
Early last week, as the sun still shone on area beaches, AccuWeather meteorologists began referring to this event as a tropical wind and rainstorm to raise public awareness and help officials and communities better prepare for its impacts.
These images, of the beach at Cape May, New Jersey, were taken one week apart. (Left taken on Sunday, Oct. 5, 2025, by Alex Sosnowski. Right taken on Sunday, Oct. 12, 2025, by Eddie Fitzsimmons)
“This will be a major and damaging storm regardless of official naming designation by the National Hurricane Center,” AccuWeather Chief Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said last week. The storm has a hybrid structure to it–a cross between a powerful nor’easter and a subtropical storm, which would gather a name.
“The AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes and Tropical Storms is one for this event,” DaSilva said.
The RealImpact Scale takes into account much more than the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Conditions ranging from storm surge, flooding rainfall, wind, beach erosion, population displacement and economic impacts are factored in with the RealImpact Scale.
The winds from this storm will not only be strong enough to push a lot of Atlantic water onto the coast, but also lead to tree and minor property damage, and cause power outages. Tens of thousands of utility customers may be without power for a time.
Wind gusts will generally range between 40 and 60 mph with an AccuWeather Local StormMax™ gust of 80 mph. Hurricane-force winds begin at 74 mph.
Some tropical storm-force gusts will extend back to near Interstate 95. Strong gusts over the high bridges in the region could make for hazardous conditions for some vehicles, especially trucks and buses. Rough seas and high winds have affected ferry service in some locations.
The combination of high winds and heavy rain with poor visibility will affect flight operations at area airports from eastern North Carolina to southern New England. Hundreds of ground stops, flight delays and cancellations are likely at the major hubs.
Enough rain will fall within 75 miles of the coast to lead to urban flooding and can overlap with storm surge flooding, leading to a more serious situation with high water levels that overwhelm drainage systems.
Radar estimates indicated that 8-10 inches of rain have fallen on some coastal areas in the Carolinas as of Sunday morning. While that heavy rain will taper, the zone of heavy rain will shift northward.
From later Monday to Tuesday, the storm will take a turn out to sea. During this time, winds, storm surge and rain will gradually ease in the mid-Atlantic allowing damage assessment and repairs to begin.
Prior to the storm pivoting out to sea, a drenching but much-needed rain will fall in part of New England. However, the combination of the rain, fallen leaves and blocked storm drains can lead to urban flooding.
Some of the worst conditions along the coast in southern New England may occur from Monday to early Tuesday, related to moderate storm surge and rough seas.
Conditions will remain dangerous for small craft offshore throughout Sunday, Monday and into Tuesday with deep-sea waves of 20-25 feet, or the approximate height of a three-story building. Large shipping and cruise vessels can be tossed around in the dangerous conditions.
Most of the storm’s wind and rain will stay south of Atlantic Canada. However, downpours, thunderstorms, gusty winds and heavy seas will affect Bermuda during the early and middle part of this week.
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