Oil prices remain stuck in a tight range as traders look past geopolitical headlines and wait for clarity on the fragile U.S.-Iran ceasefire.
Friday, July 03, 2026
Following weeks of extremely volatile and geopolitics-driven trading, oil prices have been exceptionally calm this week, with ICE Brent trending within a narrow range of $71-73 per barrel. This partly stems from pre-holiday liquidity dips; however, it could also be seen as the oil markets’ general fatigue with gauging the current status of the US-Iran ceasefire.
Iraq Mends Its Crude Ways with Turkey. An Iraqi oil delegation visited Turkey to discuss the future of the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline agreement after Ankara had stated it sees no point in extending it, with Baghdad hoping to sign a temporary protocol to avoid a complete halt past the July 27 deadline.
Europe’s On the Hunt for Russia’s Shadow Tankers. The European Union has expanded the mandate of its operation against tankers transporting Russian oil, prompting Cameroon to drop 39 shadow tankers from its ship registry after at least 5 flags with Cameroonian flags were detained in 2026 to date.
Canada to Build a New Giant Pipeline. The government of Canada has formally announced it would build a new oil pipeline connecting Alberta to the Pacific coast, easing the country’s reliance on US transits, with construction on the 1 million b/d conduit expected to begin as early as September 2027.
Colombia’s New President Eyes Revamped NOC. Colombia’s incoming administration of President-elect Abelardo de la Espriella is seeking to replace the board of state oil firm Ecopetrol (NYSE:EC) and appoint a new management immediately after taking office, signalling a pro-oil turn in Bogota’s policy.
Qatar Resumes Hormuz LNG Transits. After a week-long lull in LNG transits through the Strait of Hormuz, Qatar appears to have resumed eastbound flows with its Khuwair LNG carrier set to exit the waterway this weekend, marking only the 6th cargo sailing to China since the start of the US-Iran war.
Japan Shuns LNG, Doubling Down on Cheap Coal. Japan has drastically cut its gas-fired generation in June, totalling 17.3 TWh and marking a 16% year-on-year drop, due to LNG prices stubbornly trading above $16 per MMBtu, boosting coal generation as Asian coal prices trade around $130 per tonne.
UAE Production Rebounds in June. According to tanker-tracking data, oil exports from the United Arab Emirates jumped to more than 3.9 million b/d last month, just shy of the highest level on record as previously shuttered production in the Persian Gulf is gradually coming back to the markets.
Pakistan Wants More of Iranian LPG. Pakistan’s oil minister Ali Pervaiz declared that the South Asian country is working to boost imports of liquefied petroleum gases (LPG) from Iran, putting the current level of buying at 5,000 tonnes per day (equivalent to 1.8 mtpa), citing the need for cost efficiency.
China’s Australia Mining Row Turns Even Uglier. China’s state-backed iron ore buyer CMRG has ordered domestic steel mills to halt deliveries of lower-grade iron ore products from Australia’s miner Fortescue (ASX:FMG), creating a new dispute alongside a months-long standoff between CMRG and BHP.
Russia to Buy Gasoline from India. Russia is reported to have started importing gasoline from India to cover domestic shortages, particularly acute in southern regions and the Crimea, with two tankers expected to deliver at least 60,000 metric tonnes alongside higher overland imports from Belarus.
Europe’s Naphtha Shoots Up on Disruptions. Heatwave-driven refinery outages at France’s Gonfreville and Lavera plants, as well as strikes at ExxonMobil’s Antwerpen facility, have reduced European naphtha supply to a level where Northwest European naphtha crack surged to a 10-year high of $6.5 per barrel.
Aluminium Divestment Puts Mining Giant at Risk. Ratings agency Moody’s has placed Australian mining firm South 32 (ASX:S32) on review for downgrade after this week’s announcement of a $5.6 billion deal with Alcoa to sell its bauxite and aluminium assets, citing a material reduction in the company’s scale.
Nigeria Has One Foot in OPEC, One Foot in the IEA. Nigeria has become the first OPEC member to join the International Energy Agency as an associate member, citing the need to strengthen energy security and to expand electricity access, with Oil Ministry staff already receiving ‘priority training’ at the IEA.
Kuwait Hopes for Hormuz Reopening. Hoping for a swift recovery in flows, Kuwait’s crude oil output has tripled over the past month to 1.65 million b/d, recovering from a multi-year low of 580,000 b/d in May after a series of drone attacks damaged port facilities amidst an Iranian Hormuz blockade.
By Tom Kool for Oilprice.com
