Looking ahead, Voss argues that size and scale will continue to define private markets in 2026. “Size and scale defined 2025 and we believe it will continue into 2026,” he says. On the exit front, he suggests the market could see offerings from companies such as Anthropic, OpenAI, and SpaceX “price at $500 billion, $1 trillion, even $1.5 trillion,” with companies able to raise “$10 of billions.” By comparison, Voss notes, “the largest venture backed IPO ever was Facebook raising at a valuation of $104 billion.”
Scale is also being reinforced by financing dynamics. Public-to-private transactions are expected to remain prominent, not only in the US but also in Europe and Japan. “Scale is being driven by the reality that at the upper end of the market, equity sponsors have more sources of capital from the credit markets, both private credit and syndicated loans, to get these deals done,” Voss explains. He adds that institutional capital outside of traditional private equity, including sovereign wealth funds and pensions, allows transactions to occur at even greater size.
In contrast, the mid-market remains constrained despite its sheer scale. Voss points to “30,000 private PE-backed companies sitting in portfolios with total value approaching $4 trillion,” yet sponsor-to-sponsor transactions remain limited. “I think this is because we are in a new interest rate and valuation regime,” he says. “Deals that got done at the top of the market in 2021 when borrowing costs were at all time lows, need to grow into those valuations over elongated hold periods before we see a trade.”
AI redefinition
Artificial intelligence, meanwhile, has undergone a fundamental redefinition. “Looking back 10 years, we talked about AI in our venture portfolios, but it seemed like science fiction,” Voss says. That perception changed rapidly. “Then, just a few years ago, in November 2022, we had the ChatGPT moment and AI became instant reality.”
Today, AI cuts across all asset classes. “In the public markets, it defines the business strategies for the largest, most highly valued public companies in the world,” Voss says, noting its growing prominence in capital expenditure budgets. In private markets, companies such as OpenAI and Anthropic “are being financed at values approaching half a trillion dollars. That makes them top 20 companies in the world, regardless of public or private.”
