Gold faced a reality check from RBC Capital Markets on Thursday, as the Canadian bank flagged near-term consumer headwinds but stopped well short of a bearish call.
RBC Capital Markets maintained its constructive outlook on gold, even as elevated United States 10-year Treasury yields raised the metal’s opportunity cost to its highest level since 2023.
The bank highlighted durable central bank interest alongside rising exchange-traded product holdings as key structural supports that are difficult to offset entirely.
That official demand is further bolstered by ongoing gold repatriation amid rising geopolitical tensions.
While the Indian Prime Minister’s appeal to curb gold spending could reduce demand, the national secretary of the Indian Bullion and Jewelry Association estimated September imports would decline by 15%.
Separately in the oil market, RBC noted that 71% of commodity vessels navigating the Strait of Hormuz went dark in August as geopolitical risks mounted.
This shift to dark transits marks a sharp reversal from the earlier memorandum-of-understanding period, when they had fallen to roughly 45%.
The broker also warned that at least 19 seafarers have been killed since the start of the war, which is drastically reducing crew availability for the dangerous route.
Regarding natural gas, renewed strikes in the Strait of Hormuz continue to keep Qatari supply on the sidelines.
However, the global market is simultaneously reckoning with a new wave of United States export capacity that is building to further fill that supply gap.
Turning to Latin America, the broker projects only a modest upward trend for Venezuelan crude, forecasting increases of around 110,000 and 245,000 barrels per day in 2026 and 2027, respectively.
This comes after Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX, XETRA:CHV) pledged $7 billion in investment over five years to double its joint venture production to 600,000 barrels per day.
Simultaneously, Eni SpA recently began drilling operations in the Junin 5 block to support the revival effort.
Nevertheless, RBC warned that tens of billions in new investment over a decade would be required to return to the production levels seen in the early 2000s.
Looming over the energy transition is a recent United States executive order targeting Chinese grid equipment, which is expected to cause near-term delays for battery storage projects.
Despite those regulatory hurdles, past investments in domestic manufacturing may ultimately allow the storage boom to persist, with American battery cell capacity expected to reach 140 gigawatts by 2027.
