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Roula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favourite stories in this weekly newsletter.
Ask which scientific breakthrough has loomed largest in the public imagination in the past few years, and most will pick artificial intelligence in the form of large language models. But a close second, and arguably deserving a joint first place, are GLP-1 receptor agonists, the compounds used in drugs such as Ozempic and Wegovy, prescribed originally for diabetes but now hugely popular for weight management.
As with AI, the uptake of GLP-1 drugs has been enthusiastic when available, and we are only beginning to see the economic repercussions of widespread use. Their remarkable effectiveness for weight loss is significant enough. But their effects could ripple through the entire economy, and even conceivably test the tenets of capitalism itself.
There is now solid evidence that GLP-1 users buy less food — with the biggest reductions in calorie-rich, highly processed food types. The drop in demand seems to be having a dramatic impact in some markets. Global sugar prices have halved in the past two years due in part to a drop in demand. Most strikingly, sliding sales of ice cream are hurting the finances of the maker of Magnum and Ben & Jerry’s.
By itself this is just another turn of the wheel of creative destruction, where the threat to some products and services leads to benefits for others. Food shoppers are increasing their demand for protein-rich food — some of that may be in response to advice to sustain muscle mass while losing weight. Those who find themselves with a new body shape often celebrate by buying a new wardrobe. Airlines, meanwhile, are promised savings from lither passengers.
Such changes in consumption patterns are something to celebrate, if they improve people’s health and sense of control over their lives, and shift resources into more wholesome products and services. They could reduce the public health burden and enable people to be productive and work for longer.
But the impact of GLP-1 drugs could go further still. Since the compound seems to work by taming the brain’s reward system, it reportedly curtails cravings well beyond those for food. Researchers are asking whether it could provide a treatment for addictions, from alcohol and drugs to gambling. (It may already be happening: though other factors are at play too, alcoholic spirits are sitting unsold in “unprecedented” quantities.)
Many lives could be improved if irresistible desires were easier to rein in. But there is a flip side. For better or worse, we live in an economic system based on satisfying desires in return for payment. What if, for the first time in human history, we have a straightforward tool to remove insatiable appetites?
Our propensity to crave and our flawed ability to delay gratification are, after all, the basis for virtually all marketing. It is a truism that “sex sells”, but if enough people start taking a drug that removes urges and tames desires, what happens then? Consuming less and saving more may make for better individual lives, but collectively the demand destruction could in theory put many of us out of a job. As it happens, research finds GLP-1 drugs do not reduce users’ libido. Some appetites seem safe, then.
And even if pharmacology succeeds where philosophers for millennia have tried and failed, by heightening our ability to resist immediate urges, that too could be of economic advantage. Less spontaneous consumption could, with smart policies, be harnessed for greater long-term investment.
There are, in any case, reasons for confidence that capitalism will adapt. If, after all, we end up with too little desire for our own good, a lot of money could be made by those inventing a way to spark it again.
