Topline
To get the promised economic boom from the World Cup, the U.S. needs a last-minute influx of international soccer fans—but that’s far easier for some countries to pull off than others thanks to visa rules.
Soccer fans from England and Germany are among the most committed—and they have a long history of traveling to World Cups when their teams advance.
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Key Facts
The largest World Cup ever—48 teams playing 104 games across three countries—kicks off Thursday with Spain and France as tournament favorites, according to the prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket.
When FIFA projected last year that the World Cup would contribute $30.5 billion in U.S. economic output and deliver up to $17.2 billion to GDP—adding roughly 0.05% to the U.S. economy—it assumed at least 40% of visitors would be international travelers, who spend roughly four times more per trip, on average, than domestic travelers.
So far, hotel demand in World Cup host cities has “evolved differently than many initially anticipated” with lower-than-expected international visitation, Rosanna Maietta, president and CEO of the American Hotel & Lodging Association, told CNBC.
“There is still a question about international visitors,” Alan Fyall, associate dean at the University of Central Florida’s Rosen College of Hospitality Management, told Forbes, noting Americans dominate ticket sales and hotel bookings thus far.
Last-minute travel to the U.S. is significantly easier for tourists from the 42 countries in the Visa Waiver Program (VWP), who can visit for 90 days or less without obtaining a traditional visa.
The Psychology Behind Last-Minute International Arrivals
The group stage of the tournament (June 11-27) will whittle the field from 48 to 32 teams. By July 7, the competition will have shrunk to 16 teams, which is when host cities could see influxes of last-minute foreign arrivals. Historically, the World Cup has generated late-booking demand as supporters see whether their national teams advance. When Argentina made it to the final against France in the 2022 World Cup, bookings to Qatar almost doubled, with most flight tickets purchased two days before the final, according to data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA). “Once the tournament starts, if your team starts performing well, all of a sudden, irrespective of politics, money, and everything else, people will jump on planes—they just do,” Fyall told Forbes. FIFA told World Cup host cities to expect a 50/50 split between domestic and international visitors, three host city tourism officials told Forbes. FIFA president Gianni Infantino previously hyped the tournament’s economic impact as the equivalent of “104 Super Bowls” and on Wednesday told reporters the tournament will be “the biggest event probably in the history of mankind.” Tourism leaders are still hoping for an economic boost driven by the “irrationality of the global soccer fan,” Tariq Khan, senior economist at Tourism Economics, the travel-focused arm of Oxford Economics, told Forbes. “Maybe the irrational soccer fan is just so in love with the moment that they see on TV and in the stadiums, and maybe we could paper over the cracks and show America in its best light.”
Which Countries Have The Most Committed Traveling Fandoms?
Argentina, England, Brazil and Germany consistently rank among the largest international ticket-demand markets, according to FIFA data. England’s official national supporters clubs are among the most organized in international football and are famous for traveling without tickets and gathering in host cities simply to be part of the World Cup atmosphere. Between 12,000 and 15,000 England fans will attend each of the team’s three group matches in Dallas, Boston and New Jersey, the BBC reported. Germany’s supporters travel in unusually large numbers and historically demand has surged when the team was favored in prior World Cups. In the 2018 tournament, Germany’s shock elimination in the group stage became a major story because many German supporters had traveled expecting a long run. Likewise, bookings by Brazil’s fans surged for the 2018 World Cup until the team was eliminated in the quarter finals. Supporters of 2022 World Cup champions Argentina were among the most visible in Doha during the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, with some saving for four years and forsaking home-buying in order to make the trip.
The Path For European Fans Is Much Faster And Cheaper
Pulling off a last-minute trip to the U.S. is far easier and cheaper for fans from Visa Waiver Program countries. Seven of the top 10 FIFA-ranked nations are in the VWP: Spain (No. 2), France (No. 3), England (No. 4), Portugal (No. 5), The Netherlands (No. 8), Belgium (No. 9) and Germany (No. 10). European fans apply to enter the U.S. online through the Electronic System for Travel Authorization (ESTA) for about $40 and find out if their application is approved within 72 hours. Meanwhile, citizens from the remaining top 10 teams—Argentina (No. 1), Brazil (No. 6) and Morocco (No. 7)—must secure an in-person interview at a U.S. embassy when they apply for a visa, which costs $185. The wait time for an interview in these countries range from about 15 days in Argentina and Brazil to 30 days in Morocco, according to the State Department, after which it takes three to 10 business days for the visa to be processed. With 33 days until the semifinals and 38 days until the final match, the window for Argentinian, Brazilian and Moroccan fans to get a B1/B2 tourist visa is closing fast. “As with all international travel that requires a visa, it is never a good idea to wait until the last minute and fans should apply as soon as possible,” the U.S. Travel Association said in a statement shared with Forbes. “Even if fans ultimately decide not to attend the World Cup or if their team doesn’t advance, the U.S. visitor visa is good for the next decade.”
What We Don’t Know
Will the U.S. roll out a welcome mat for international visitors during the tournament? Donald Trump’s second administration has made it harder and costlier for foreigners to visit the United States—while headlines have told an often ugly narrative. Fans from more than a quarter of the countries taking part in the World Cup are facing travel bans, tighter restrictions or high visa rejection rates, according to an analysis of travel data by the BBC World Service. What would have been the first Somalian to referee at the World Cup was turned away at the Miami airport despite having a valid visa. When asked about the incident on Wednesday, Infantino told reporters that “sometimes it’s good as well to just chill, relax.” An Iraqi player, Aymen Hussein, was detained for “nearly seven hours” at Chicago O’Hare airport, while a team photographer was denied entry altogether. Iranian players only received U.S. visas at the last minute, while some team staff haven’t received them at all. Then there are concerns about potential ICE crackdowns around the World Cup. Roughly two-thirds of Americans (65%) oppose ICE being present at U.S. stadiums during the World Cup, according to a Washington Post-University of Maryland poll fielded last month. While Secretary of State Marco Rubio has given assurances that ICE would not operate inside stadiums, Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin has not ruled out the possibility of arrests near the games. While some officials in the U.S. tourism industry say negative headlines have been overblown, the perception of America as an unwelcoming nation has become baked in with many soccer fans overseas. “The rhetoric from the administration around letting people in has just not been super helpful,” Jan Freitag, national director of hospitality market analytics at CoStar, the industry benchmarking and analytics firm, told Forbes, noting his friends and family in Germany were not planning to visit during the World Cup due to exorbitant ticket prices and a perceived hassle of getting into the country.
Further Reading
A Guide To The FIFA World Cup, For Beginners And Aficionados (Forbes)
How To Watch The FIFA World Cup, In English Or Spanish (Forbes)
