10.08.2026 23:41
The cryptocurrency market ended last week mostly on an uptrend: Bitcoin rebounded from its early August decline and retested the $65,000 mark, while Ethereum and most major altcoins also gained ground. The exception among the leading cryptocurrencies was XRP, which lost about 5% over the week.
As of the morning of August 10, Bitcoin was trading at around $65,200 and had risen by approximately 3.7% over the past seven days, according to CoinDesk data. On Monday, the price fell back below $65,000—to around $64,500–$64,700. As recently as August 7, BTC was showing a weekly gain of 3.1%, heading toward its first weekly gain in three weeks.
Ethereum was trading around $1,900 at the start of the new week and also ended the week with gains. BNB and Solana were in positive territory, while XRP lagged behind the broader market recovery and lost about 5%.
One of the main supporting factors was the return of institutional demand. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $853.54 million in net inflows last week, marking the strongest weekly result since mid-April. A significant portion of the funds went to BlackRock’s IBIT fund.
The combined net inflow into U.S. spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs for the week is estimated at approximately $1.1 billion. Back in early August, the situation was the opposite: Bitcoin ETFs had ended the previous week with a small net outflow, so the return of major buyers became one of the key shifts in the market landscape.
U.S. macroeconomic data provided additional support for cryptocurrencies. Weak U.S. labor market data eased concerns about a possible further increase in the Fed’s interest rates and bolstered demand for risky assets. Following the release of the data, Bitcoin rose to $65,000, while U.S. stock indices finished the week on a strong note.
However, it is still too early to speak of a full-fledged return to a sustained bullish trend. Bitcoin remains near the $62,000–$65,000 range, where it has spent much of the past few weeks. Analysts note that a sustained market recovery would require a break above the $65,000 level.
Another sign of caution is the extremely low realized volatility. Last Saturday, BTC’s trading range was only about $350—the narrowest Saturday range since November 2023. At the same time, the options market continues to see elevated demand for downside protection around the $62,000–$63,000 range, indicating ongoing concerns among market participants.
News of the sale of bitcoins by Strategy, the largest corporate holder, also acted as a restraining factor. The company reported on August 10 that it had sold 1,690 BTC for approximately $108.6 million the previous week, using the proceeds, in part, to repurchase preferred shares. Its holdings have decreased to 840,447 BTC.
Regulatory factors, on the other hand, are likely to take a back seat by the end of August. The U.S. Senate failed to pass the CLARITY Act before Congress’s August recess began. Lawmakers are not expected to resume consideration of comprehensive regulations for the digital asset market until at least mid-September.
What Will Drive the Market Through the End of August
The first major test will be U.S. inflation data. August 12 will see the release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index for July, August 13 — the Producer Price Index, and August 14 — retail sales data. Following weak employment data, inflation figures could shape expectations regarding the Fed’s future policy and, consequently, the direction of Bitcoin and other risky assets.
The next important date will be August 19, when the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the July 28–29 FOMC meeting. Investors will be looking for additional signals in the minutes regarding the extent to which the central bank is concerned about the combination of elevated inflation and a weakening labor market.
The last week of August will be even more eventful. August 26 will see the U.S. simultaneously release its second estimate of second-quarter GDP and July statistics on personal income and spending, including the PCE price index—one of the Fed’s key inflation benchmarks.
From August 27 to 29, the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank will hold its annual symposium in Jackson Hole. In 2026, the symposium’s theme is directly related to financial markets—“Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy”. Therefore, statements by central bank leaders may be of particular significance for the cryptocurrency sector as well.
Two main scenarios can be identified for the market through the end of August. Assuming continued capital inflows into ETFs, more moderate inflation in the U.S., and continued expectations of a neutral or more accommodative Fed policy, Bitcoin will have the opportunity to consolidate above $65,000 and attempt to return to July’s levels above $66,000. This is a conclusion based on the current market structure, not a guaranteed price forecast.
The negative scenario is primarily linked to an unexpected acceleration of inflation in the U.S., rising bond yields, and a renewed escalation of geopolitical risks surrounding the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz. In that case, market attention will shift back to the $62,000–$63,000 range, where options traders are currently actively hedging against a decline.
Thus, the crypto market is entering the second half of August in a stronger position than at the beginning of the month: institutional inflows have resumed, Bitcoin has recouped a significant portion of its recent losses, and most of the largest altcoins have turned bullish. However, low volatility and the concentration of several key macroeconomic events in the second half of the month set the stage for a noticeable increase in price fluctuations by the end of August.
Теги:
ETF
Bitcoin
Ethereum
cryptocurrency
inflation
Переглядів:
117
