Omaha may be a blue dot in a sea of Nebraska red, but that point of political pride has sparked a bitter divide among Democrats in one of the nation’s most closely watched congressional races.
In the Nebraska primary on Tuesday, the Democratic campaign to replace Republican Rep. Don Bacon has become something of a proxy war over which Democratic candidate would protect — or risk — the state’s unique method of awarding electoral votes in presidential elections.
The retirement of Bacon, one of only three House Republicans who won in districts that Kamala Harris also carried in 2024, created an open seat and attractive terrain for Democrats to target in their effort to win control of Congress in November.
Two of the leading Democratic hopefuls in the race — John Cavanaugh and Denise Powell — have been at each other’s throats for weeks, with dueling ads, yard signs and contentious neighborhood disputes.
Powell argues that electing Cavanaugh, a state senator, to Congress would mean he could no longer fight against future Republican efforts to change state election law and make Nebraska a winner-take-all system like 48 other states. That would threaten the blue dot, as the state’s 2nd Congressional District has colloquially become known.
“We have fought so hard for fair representation, our Blue Dot, and to retain that electoral power,” Powell said Friday in a statement. “We cannot afford a candidate whose campaign hands Republicans the votes to gerrymander us into oblivion.”
The Democratic quarreling in Nebraska over a unique state issue stands apart from the ideological fights in other competitive races across the country. Still, the primary has attracted a deluge of outside spending from interest groups, with more than $6 million in advertising alone, according to AdImpact.
Two outside progressive super PACs have invested more than $1 million on the Omaha airwaves seeking to amplify Powell’s argument: If Cavanaugh is elected to Congress and gives up his position in the state legislature, Republican Gov. Jim Pillen would fill the seat with someone who would vote to eliminate the blue dot.
In response, Cavanaugh has aired ads of his own, calling his opponent “Dark Money Denise.”
His campaign and allies have planted yard signs across the district vowing to “stand up to Trump and defend the blue dot.” Six fellow state senators signed an open letter to voters last month saying the attacks were misguided and Democrats were likely to win other legislative races.
“We stand with John Cavanaugh because we can protect the Blue Dot and existing abortion access, while sending a strong, experienced legislator to Congress,” the senators said in their letter. “It is disingenuous to boil the fate of Nebraskans down to one person.”
Nebraska and Maine are the only two states in the country that divide Electoral College votes by congressional district rather than a statewide winner-take-all formula.
Under the system, the statewide winner receives two electoral votes, and the rest are split, one apiece, among the leading vote-getters in each district.
President Donald Trump benefited from the system in Maine, a blue state, where he won a single electoral vote in 2016 and 2020 despite losing statewide. But the opposite happened in Nebraska, a red state, where he won only four of five electoral votes in 2020.
In the final weeks of the 2024 campaign, Trump and his allies mounted a last-ditch effort to change the Nebraska law, fearful of the possibility of a 269-269 tie in the Electoral College. Those worries, of course, never materialized, as Trump defeated Harris 312-226.
Hoping to impress upon them the importance of a single electoral vote in a tight race, Trump in 2024 spoke by phone to Nebraska Republican lawmakers to encourage them to change the rules for the upcoming election.
But because of opposition from lawmakers like Cavanaugh and a handful of others, Pillen failed to rally support to change the 30-year-old Nebraska law. He has pledged to try again if he can muster support from the nation’s only unicameral legislature, which is technically nonpartisan but has 33 senators who form a Republican supermajority and 16 senators who usually make up the Democratic opposition.
When Bacon announced his intention to retire from Congress, Democrats seized upon the opportunity for an open seat in a district that stretches across the Omaha area in eastern Nebraska. For the last decade, Bacon has successfully fought off all Democratic challengers.
Brinker Harding, an Omaha city councilman, is running unopposed for the Republican nomination for the seat.
The Democratic campaign was initially dominated by familiar concerns such as rising costs, the Trump administration’s immigration crackdown and, more recently, the Iran war. Now, the primary race has become consumed by talk of protecting the state’s lone Democratic electoral vote.
The suggestion that the blue dot was at risk first came from Crystal Rhoades, clerk of the Douglas County District Court, who is one of six Democratic candidates in the race. But Powell and out-of-state allies, including Emily’s List, soon amplified the argument in a multimillion-dollar spending campaign.
The fight has become a resounding soundtrack of TV ads against Cavanaugh, including one from New Democratic Majority, a super PAC that supports Powell.
“It’s how a House win in Nebraska could cost Democrats the presidency,” an announcer says. “Don’t let John Cavanaugh give away our blue dot.”
Powell, who previously operated a political action committee called Women Run Nebraska, is seeking elected office for the first time. In ads, she describes herself as “one pissed-off Mom.”
Cavanaugh hails from a prominent Democratic family in Omaha. His father represented the 2nd District in Congress from 1977 to 1981. His sister, Machaela, serves in the state legislature.
In addition to TV ads of his own, Cavanaugh created a page on his campaign web site to push back on the argument that his election to Congress would imperil the blue dot. If elected, he said, he would not resign his legislative seat until January, after new senators are elected.
“Elected Democrats in Nebraska are confident that they will pick up more than enough seats in November to offset John’s vote,” he explains on his campaign site. He adds: “Nebraska Democrats do not have to choose between standing up to Trump and protecting our blue dot.”
